Predicting current and future potential distribution of Cynaeus angustus (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae) in global scale using the MaxEnt model

Abstract

The larger black flour beetle, Cynaeus angustus (LeConte), as a fauna extending storage insect has rapidly spread globally from its native North America to other continents and countries in the last three decades. Based on the occurrence records and environmental variables, the current and future potential distribution on a global scale are predicted using MaxEnt model. The results showed that the current suitable area involved in China, South Korea, North Korea, Japan, Kazakhstan, Afghanistan, Australia, Argentina, the Republic of South Africa, North America, and most of European countries. Under future climate change scenarios, this insect is predicted to remarkably expand its fauna range to the north and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) provides the largest expansion, and the suitable area expands in the northern hemisphere whereas contraction in the southern hemisphere. The annual mean temperature, temperature annual range were the key factors influencing the potential distribution of C. angustus. The results of this study provide basic data for pest monitoring, early warning measures, and quarantine strategies in high-risk countries.