Predicting current and future global distribution of invasive Ligustrum lucidum W.T. Aiton: Assessing emerging risks to biodiversity hotspots

Lía Montti,Santiago José Elías Velazco,H Ricardo Grau,Justin M J Travis,Zhixin Zhang

doi:10.1111/ddi.13303

Abstract

AbstractAimBiological invasions represent one of the main anthropogenic drivers of global change with a substantial impact on biodiversity. This impact can be particularly acute in biodiversity hotspots. Ligustrum lucidum W.T. Aiton is a tree species native of China that, from as early as the eighteenth century, has been introduced broadly around the globe, becoming a serious invasive species. We aim to predict L. lucidum's current and future potential distributions at a global scale and assess the degree to which biodiversity hotspots are at risk of invasion.LocationAll continents.MethodsUsing global presence data, climatic and edaphic variables, we developed an ensemble model to predict current and future periods (2050 and 2080) global distribution of L. lucidum. Susceptible countries and hotspots of biodiversity were identified.ResultsImportant regions within China and neighbouring countries are likely to be environmentally suitable, but they are not currently occupied. Biodiversity hotspots in South America are highlighted as being at current risk of invasion. Notably, climate change may increase risks across large extents of biodiversity hotspots, mainly in South America and Africa, especially by 2080 period.Main conclusionsCurrent and future potential distribution of L. lucidum overlaps with biodiversity hotspots worldwide. Control of L. lucidum is a challenge once established. Thus, species distribution modelling helps to identify risk areas, guiding their early detection in current or future suitable areas. Our findings can be useful as a guide to develop region‐specific invasion management strategies to prevent and/or control this species' spread.

Highlights

Invasive alien species (IAS) are one of the five direct drivers of global biodiversity loss (IPBES, 2019)
We modelled the current and future potential distribution of L. lucidum at a global scale using a comprehensive records database from native and novel ranges
Based on the records available, we found that L. lucidum is already globally widespread

Summary

| INTRODUCTION

Invasive alien species (IAS) are one of the five direct drivers of global biodiversity loss (IPBES, 2019). During an invasion process, other species may expand into regions exposed to different climate conditions than they experience in their native range (Atwater et al, 2018; Broennimann et al, 2007; Gallagher et al, 2010; Goncalves et al, 2014). This characteristic of many invasive plants provides a particular challenge in predicting suitable regions for the species under current or future climate conditions. Here we aim to answer the following questions: (a) In which countries is L. lucidum present, and what is the current potential distribution based on climatic and edaphic variables? (b) Which areas of the World could, in future climatic conditions, exhibit suitable environment conditions? and (c) What is the current and future susceptibility of the biodiversity hotspots to be invaded?

| METHODS

Findings

| DISCUSSION