Predicting COVID-19 new cases in California with Google Trends data and a machine learning approach

Abstract

ABSTRACT Background Google Trends data can be a valuable source of information for health-related issues such as predicting infectious disease trends. Objectives To evaluate the accuracy of predicting COVID-19 new cases in California using Google Trends data, we develop and use a GMDH-type neural network model and compare its performance with a LTSM model. Methods We predicted COVID-19 new cases using Google query data over three periods. Our first period covered March 1, 2020, to July 31, 2020, including the first peak of infection. We also estimated a model from October 1, 2020, to January 7, 2021, including the second wave of COVID-19 and avoiding possible biases from public interest in searching about the new pandemic. In addition, we extended our forecasting period from May 20, 2020, to January 31, 2021, to cover an extended period of time. Results Our findings show that Google relative search volume (RSV) can be used to accurately predict new COVID-19 cases.  We find that among our Google relative search volume terms, “Fever,” “COVID Testing,” “Signs of COVID,” “COVID Treatment,” and ”Shortness of Breath” increase model predictive accuracy. Conclusions Our findings highlight the value of using data sources providing near real-time data, e.g., Google Trends, to detect trends in COVID-19 cases, in order to supplement and extend existing epidemiological models.