Predicting cirrhosis and clinical outcomes in patients with advanced chronic hepatitis C with a panel of genetic markers (CRS7)

Abstract

Genetic factors may play a role in fibrosis progression in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC). A cirrhosis risk score (CRS7) with seven single nucleotide polymorphisms was previously shown to correlate with cirrhosis in patients with CHC. This study aimed to assess the validity of CRS7 as a marker of fibrosis progression and cirrhosis and as a predictor of clinical outcomes in patients with CHC. A total of 938 patients (677 Caucasians, 165 African-Americans, and 96 Hispanic/Other) in the Hepatitis C Antiviral Long-term Treatment against Cirrhosis Trial were studied. CRS7 was categorized a priori as high risk (n=440), medium risk (n=310), or low risk (n=188). Patients were assessed for four possible outcomes: fibrosis progression, cirrhosis, clinical outcomes [decompensation or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC)], or HCC alone. Twenty-nine percent (142/493) developed an increase in fibrosis score by greater than or equal to 2 points on follow-up biopsies, 58% had cirrhosis on one or more biopsies, 35% developed at least one clinical outcome, and 13% developed HCC. CRS7 (trend test) was associated with risk for fibrosis progression (P=0.04) with adjusted hazard ratio of 1.27 (95% confidence interval: 1.01-1.58) and with cirrhosis (P=0.05) with adjusted odds ratio of 1.19 (1.00-1.41). Rates of HCC and clinical outcomes were increased in patients with higher CRS7 scores, but were not statistically significant (P=0.12 clinical outcomes, and P=0.07 HCC). A single nucleotide polymorphism in AZIN1 was significantly associated with fibrosis progression. CRS7 was validated as a predictor of fibrosis progression and cirrhosis among Hepatitis C Antiviral Long-term Treatment against Cirrhosis patients, who all had advanced fibrosis. CRS7 was not predictive of clinical outcome.