Predicting chronological age based on age-related osteophyte development in the superior and inferior vertebral centrum margins of T12-L5.

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between vertebral margins at individual vertebral levels between T12-L5 vertebra and chronological age and develop predictive models. Three hundred and nineteen CT scans from a medical imaging database in North America were randomly selected. Three superior and inferior vertebral margin sites were scored based on observable age-related changes. All individual vertebral margin site scores significantly correlated with age at death with Pearson r values ranging from 0.47 to 0.77. Totaling the individual vertebral margin site scores for L1-L5 improved Pearson r to 0.92. All resulting predictive models were significant, and the best models predicted age at death within 10 years 70%-76% of the time for males, females, and combined male and females. In conclusion, this study produced accurate and reliable models to predict age at death using age-related changes in the spine for a North American population.