Predicting China’s carbon intensity through 2050: an integrated analysis method

Abstract

ABSTRACT Carbon intensity is one of the key indexes in the process of decarbonizing development. Therefore, our paper investigates possible pathways of China’s carbon intensity to 2050 depending on China’s development stage and trends. We first investigate the major influence factors of carbon intensity based on the Kaya identity, and then forecast China’s future carbon intensity with a generalized regression neural network model coupled with a scenario analysis with official data from 1978 to 2020. Our results show that: (1) China’s carbon intensity will decrease under the benchmark growth, high growth, and low growth scenarios but vary by amounts and rates of decrease due to the settings of the influences factors; (2) China is able to achieve the reduction targets of 2025 under the benchmark growth and low growth scenario, but cannot achieve the target under the high grow scenario. However, China can meet its reduction target by 2030 in all scenarios. (3) The Chinese government should aim to reduce carbon intensity by 23–25%, 40–44% and 64–70% by 2035, 2040 and 2050 as compared to the level in 2030. Therefore, China should keep promoting the deep low-carbon transformation of economic development model, and realize high-quality economic development in order to achieve these objectives.