Predicting carbon emissions, emissions reductions, and carbon removal due to deforestation and plantation forests in Southeast Asia

Abstract

Periodic assessment of the forest carbon stocks is needed as part of the global efforts to reduce deforestation and forest degradation and mitigate climate change. Here, we assessed carbon stocks, carbon emissions, removals, and reductions due to deforestation and management of the natural (NFs) and plantation forests (PFs) in Southeast Asia. We found that area of NFs declined about 1.09 million ha or 0.52% yr−1 over the last 20 years but only approximately 0.29 million ha was converted to PFs. Between 2000 and 2030, Southeast Asia emitted 477.7 TgCO2 yr−1 from NFs but gained 44.0 TgCO2 yr−1 in PFs. As area of production forest continues to decline, future timber production in the region is likely to come from the PFs. Using the retrospective approach, forest reference emission level in Southeast Asia was estimated at 431.2 TgCO2 yr−1 during the implementation period of the Paris Agreement between 2020 and 2030. If REDD+ activities were implemented to reduce deforestation and forest degradation and enhance forest carbon stocks, 1922.1 TgCO2 of carbon credits could be achieved and the net carbon revenues were US$8–180 billion between 2020 and 2030 depending on the chosen carbon prices.