Predicting Abnormal Runway Occupancy Times and Observing Related Precursors

Abstract

Accidents on the runway triggered the development and implementation of mitigation strategies. Therefore, the airline industry is moving toward proactive risk management, which aims to identify and predict risk precursors and to mitigate risks before accidents occur. For certain predictions machine learning techniques can be used. Although many studies have explored and applied novel machine learning techniques on different radar and A-SMGCS data, the identification and prediction of abnormal runway occupancy times and the observation of related precursors are not well developed. In our previous papers, three existing methods were introduced, lasso, multi-layer perception, and neural networks, to predict the taxi-out time on the taxiway and the time to fly and true airspeed profile on final approach. This paper presents a new machine learning method where the existing machine learning techniques are combined for predicting the abnormal runway occupancy times of unique radar data patterns. Additionally the regression tree method is used in this study to observe the key related precursors extracted from the top 10 features. Compared with existing methods, the new method no longer requires predefined criteria or domain knowledge. Tests were conducted using final approach radar data and A-SMGCS runway data consisting of 78,321 flights at Paris Charles de Gaulle airport and were benchmarked against 500,000 flights at Vienna airport.