Abstract
As climate change progresses, understanding the impact on human health associated with the temperature and air pollutants has been paramount. However, the predicted effect on temperature associated with particulate matter (PM10) is not well understood due to the difficulty in predicting the local and regional PM10. We compared temperature-attributable mortality for the baseline (2003–2012), 2030s (2026–2035), 2050s (2046–2055), and 2080s (2076–2085) based on a distributed lag non-linear model by simultaneously considering assumed levels of PM10 on historical and projected temperatures under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. The considered projected PM10 concentrations of 35, 50, 65, 80, and 95 μg/m3 were based on historical concentration quantiles. Our findings confirmed greater temperature-attributable risks at PM10 concentrations above 65 μg/m3 due to the modification effect of the pollutants on temperature. In addition, this association between temperature and PM10 was higher under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. We also confirmed regional heterogeneity in temperature-attributable deaths by considering PM10 concentrations in South Korea with higher risks in heavily populated areas. These results demonstrated that the modification association of air pollutants on health burdens attributable to increasing temperatures should be considered by researchers and policy makers.
Highlights
In recent years, health risks have increased due to climate change associated with advancing industrialization
representative concentration pathway (RCP) is based on different energy use, economic, and demographic assumptions, which is the typical trajectory of gas emissions recommended by the 5th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report
This study examined how future temperature-related mortality changes under different assumed
Summary
Health risks have increased due to climate change associated with advancing industrialization. Due to adverse effect of climate change on human health, the projection of future mortality rates under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios has become an important area of study. Few studies have considered the modification effect of air pollution on temperature-related mortality. The complex interactions between temperature and air pollutants have been investigated based on historical data and have shown an increased risk of mortality due to the modification effect [10,11,12]. The effect of air pollution on temperature-related mortality has been identified in several studies [13,14,15]. To better understand the modification effect of air pollution on temperature-attributable mortality, our research analyzed the effects on health by simultaneously considering the assumed levels of PM10 , and the projected temperature under RCP scenarios. The results of our study could be used to provide guidelines for policy makers on hazardous air pollution levels under all climate change scenarios
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