Abstract
A 3D groundwater steady-state flow conceptual model was built for all of Iraq using a MODFLOW package integrated with the Groundwater Modeling System to simulate the groundwater movement and flow direction for the upper zone of Iraq as well as to compute the water budget for all aquifer systems in Iraq. This model was run for seven scenarios of climate change conditions for the period of 2020–2050. A Representative Concentration Pathway model (RCP4.5) was used for the prediction of future rainfall over the next 31 years. The results showed that the decline in rainfall will be 6.247% due to climate change impacts. The decline in rainfall will cover two-thirds of the area of Iraq. Seven scenarios simulating groundwater flow behavior showed that decreased soil moisture content will significantly reduce groundwater recharge and increase runoff. A decline in groundwater levels by an average of 1.8–4.8 m will occur for the upper zone of Iraqi aquifers over the next 31 years. These results will help Iraqi decision-makers improve water resource management.
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