Abstract
We analyzed the role of predictable and unpredictable variability in the identification of optimal renewable energy mixes in an electricity system. Renewable energy sources are the fastest growing energy generation technology, but the variable nature of production linked to climate variability raises structural, technological and economical issues. This work proposes the differentiation of the treatment applied to predictable and unpredictable variability in the context of Markowitz portfolio theory for optimal renewable deployment. The e4clim model was used as a tool to analyze the impact of predictable sources of generation variability on the optimal renewable energy mixes. Significant differences appeared, depending on the consideration of risk, all of them showing room for improvement with respect to the current situation. The application of the methods developed in this study is encouraged in mean-variance analyses, since its contribution favors scenarios where unpredictable variability in the climate-powered renewable energy sources are considered for their risk introduction.
Highlights
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) [1], in a scenario that incorporates the current policy intentions and targets, wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) become the most relevant renewable sources of energy
We use the energy for a climate integrated model (e4clim) presented in Tantet et al [26] to analyze the impacts of climate variability on optimal renewable energy mixes, focusing on the development of a method for dealing with the risks that come from the presence of predictable and unpredictable variability components. e4clim strikes as the most suitable tool for this purpose for multiple reasons
Objectives of the optimization being defined heuristically allows us to focus on the variability of the production, while avoiding running a full power-system model to estimate system costs
Summary
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) [1], in a scenario that incorporates the current policy intentions and targets, wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) become the most relevant renewable sources of energy. Demand is projected to grow by 1% each year to 2040, but more than half of this increase is covered by low-carbon sources, led by solar PV. The IEA [2] has reported an increase of almost 3% in renewable electricity generation in the first three months of 2020 with respect to the same period of 2019. An increase of nearly 5% is expected in 2020, and this expectation was even higher before the COVID-19 crisis. Of the recovery rate regarding the crisis, renewables are expected to continue experiencing an increase
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