Precursors-driven machine learning prediction of chaotic extreme pulses in Kerr resonators

Abstract

Machine learning algorithms have opened a breach in the prediction's fortress of high-dimensional chaotic systems. Their ability to find hidden correlations in data can be exploited to perform model-free forecasting of spatiotemporal chaos and extreme events. However, the extensive feature of these evolutions makes up a critical limitation for full-size forecasting processes. Hence, the main challenge for forecasting relevant events is to establish the set of pertinent information. Here, we identify precursors from the transfer entropy of the system and a deep Long Short-Term Memory network to forecast the complex dynamics of a system evolving in a high-dimensional spatiotemporal chaotic regime. Performances of this triggerable model-free prediction protocol based on the information flowing map are tested from experimental data originating from a passive resonator operating in such a complex nonlinear regime. We have been able to predict the occurrence of extreme events up to 9 round trips after the detection of precursor, i.e., 3 times the horizon provided by Lyapunov exponents, with 92% of true positive predictions leading to 60% of accuracy.We have implemented a process to forecast extreme events in a fully developed turbulent flow. The novelty of our strategy lies in the information's use theory method to detect precursors and use them as the input of a neural network to infer the incoming extreme events. Our process is suitable for all the extended dissipative systems that can only be partially observed or real-world data.