Abstract
Recent research suggests that precise numbers signal confidence and are more potent anchors. This idea runs counter to the emphasis on simplicity in the presentation of performance numbers found in performance management and measurement research. Regardless, political-administrative systems are dominated by numerical information when it comes to evaluating performance or setting future performance goals. This article presents a set of experiments that test how well the precision effect translates in a political-administrative setting (n=1,505). The findings provide no convincing evidence of a precision effect. Citizens' evaluation of performance numbers seem to be largely unaffected by the roundness or precision of their numerical value. This is the case even if the numerical information is presented without any explicit political cues or are framed as non-manipulative expert judgments.
Highlights
Recent research suggests that precise numbers signal confidence and are more potent anchors
Using any type of number has been found to boost citizens’ competence ratings of politicians (Pedersen, 2017), even though performance information research finds that citizens themselves are more affected by episodic information than statistical information in their overall performance assessment of organizations (Olsen, 2017a)
The paper hereby adds to the discussion in performance management on the use and effect of performance data and goals (Moynihan, 2005; Rutherford & Meier, 2015) and provides a potential piece in the puzzle of why managers use performance data (Moynihan & Pandey, 2010) and highly precise performance metrics
Summary
Recent research suggests that precise numbers signal confidence and are more potent anchors This idea runs counter to the emphasis on simplicity in the presentation of performance numbers found in performance management and measurement research. In political-administrative settings, politicians and managers are the producers of numbers while citizens are the potential receivers (Yanic & Foster, 1995, 1997; Radzevick & Moore, 2011). Across a set experiments we test how precise political-administrative numbers affect citizens’ trust in forecasts, confidence in politicaladministrative decisions, and the likelihood of achieving future performance goals. Recent research has emphasized the importance of comparisons and certain presentational formats as ways of easing citizens’ reliance on quantitative performance data (Simon, 1939; Ammons & Roegnigk, 2015; Olsen, 2017b). Performance management research offers some counter evidence to the benefits of more precise, and inadvertently more complex, forms of performance data
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