Precipitation Variations in the Central Qilian Mountains since the 7th Century and Regional Differences: Evidence from Tree-Ring Data

Abstract

The Qilian Mountains, located in northwest China and serving as a crucial water recharge area, have exhibited significant regional differences in precipitation patterns in recent decades. However, the limited temporal coverage of instrumental data has hindered a deep understanding of hydroclimate variations and regional differences. Further investigation into their long-term spatial and temporal precipitation characteristics is urgently needed. In this study, a new tree-ring-width chronology spanning 1743 years was established in the central Qilian Mountains using Qilian juniper (Juniperus przewalskii Kom.) samples. Significant correlations were found between the tree-ring indices and precipitation during both the growing and pre-growing seasons. Based on these correlations, annual precipitation from August of the previous year to July of the current year was reconstructed. The reconstruction model successfully explains 34.5% of the variation in precipitation during the calibration period. The analysis of the reconstructed series reveals notable interannual to multi-decadal dry–wet variability during the period from 614 AD to 2016 AD. The mid- to late-15th century emerges as the longest-lasting dry period, while the last decade stands out as the wettest. Comparative analysis with other precipitation reconstructions in the eastern and western Qilian Mountains reveals that regional drought events tend to be more pronounced and enduring. Low-frequency fluctuations on decadal to century scales show distinct wet and dry periods in the 12th–18th centuries in both the eastern and western parts of the Qilian Mountains, with weaker fluctuations in subsequent centuries. However, the central part of the Qilian Mountains exhibits opposite trends, possibly due to the complex interactions of multiple circulation systems.