Precipitation Variability in West Africa in the Context of Global Warming and Adaptation Recommendations

Gandome Mayeul L D Quenum,Eric A Alamou,Emmanuel A Lawin,Philip G Oguntunde,Nana A B Klutse

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-45106-6_85

Gandome Mayeul L D Quenum, Eric A Alamou + Show 3 more

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https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-45106-6_85

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Abstract

AbstractIt is commonly accepted that the Earth’s climate is changing and will continue to change in the future. Rising temperatures are one of the direct indicators of global climate change. To investigate how the rising global temperature will affect the spatial pattern of rainfall in West Africa, the precipitation and potential evapotranspiration variables from ten Global Climate Models (GCMs) under the RCP8.5 scenario were driven by the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric model (RCA4) from the COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) and analyzed at four specific global warming levels (GWLs) (i.e., 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, 2.5 °C, and 3.0 °C) above the preindustrial level. This study utilized three indices, the precipitation concentration index (PCI), the precipitation concentration degree (PCD), and the precipitation concentration period (PCP) over West Africa to explore the spatiotemporal variations in the characteristics of precipitation concentrations. Besides, the analysis of the effect of the specified GWLs on the Consecutive Dry Days (CDD), Consecutive Wet Days (CWD), and frequency of the intense rainfall events allowed to a better understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns of extreme precipitation in West Africa. Results reveal that, for the projections simulations and at each GWL, the rainfall onset starts one month earlier in the Gulf of Guinea in response to the control period. To encourage adaptation to the various changes in climate in general, and particularly in respect of rainfall, this study proposes several adaptation methods that can be implemented at the local (country) level, as well as some mitigation and adaptation strategies at the regional (West African) level.

Highlights

Precipitation variability and concentration are two important climate factors with an impact on society, agriculture, and the environment, as increased precipitation variability can reduce agricultural yields (Rowhani et al 2011)
In order to reduce risks and suggest reliable adaptation strategies for predicted climate change, this study focused on determining the variability of precipitation both in the present time and under various future scenarios
The findings obtained with regard to the precipitation concentration index (PCI) showed that in West Africa the period summarizing the main rainfall activity is between May and September

Summary

Introduction

Precipitation variability and concentration are two important climate factors with an impact on society, agriculture, and the environment, as increased precipitation variability can reduce agricultural yields (Rowhani et al 2011). Precipitation variability is strongly connected to extreme wet and dry events, floods, and droughts, which pose threats to the environment and to society, and can have devastating consequences on ecosystems, food supplies, and economies at the local, regional, and global scale (Easterling et al 2000). Obtaining real-time information and facilitating earlier predictions by decision makers can be an efficient tool to adapt and to mitigate the impacts of climate events. This is an especially challenging task over data-sparse regions as West Africa, where unreliable monitoring networks and generally low institutional capacity limits the spread of timely information (Sheffield et al 2014)

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