Abstract
Patterns in historical climate data were analyzed for Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, for the interval 1890–2019. Variables analyzed included records of annual, seasonal, and extreme temperature and precipitation, diurnal temperature range, and various environmental responses. Using LOWESS regressions, it was found that annual and seasonal temperatures in Ottawa have generally increased through this interval, precipitation has shifted to a less snowy, rainier regime, and diurnal temperature variation has decreased. Furthermore, the annual growing season has lengthened by 23 days to ~163 days, and the annual number of frost-free days increased by 13 days to ~215 days. Despite these substantial climatic shifts, some variables (e.g., extreme weather events per year) have remained largely stable through the interval. Time-series analyses (including multitaper spectral analysis and continuous and cross wavelet transforms) have revealed the presence of several strong cyclical patterns in the instrumental record attributable to known natural climate phenomena. The strongest such influence on Ottawa’s climate has been the 11-year solar cycle, while the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation were also observed and linked with the trends in annual, seasonal, and extreme weather. The results of this study, particularly the observed linkages between temperature and precipitation variables and cyclic climate drivers, will be of considerable use to policymakers for the planning, development, and maintenance of city infrastructure as Ottawa continues to rapidly grow under a warmer, wetter climate regime.
Highlights
IntroductionSince the late 1980s, the potential environmental impact of a warming world has become an increasingly prominent focus of political discourse (e.g., [1–3])
The annual average maximum and minimum temperatures have generally increased, albeit with periodic reversals through that interval, a trend that has been more pronounced for minimum temperatures
Peratures have generally increased, albeit with periodic reversals through that interval, a trend that has been more pronounced for minimum temperatures
Summary
Since the late 1980s, the potential environmental impact of a warming world has become an increasingly prominent focus of political discourse (e.g., [1–3]). The analysis of global or regional trends dominates both the scientific and popular literature. In North America, there is a large body of scientific literature assessing climate trends at the continental scale and at the regional level, as well as at the provincial and state level [4–11]. There is a dearth of analysis of more localized climate trends Such data is highly useful, though, as local climate variations can differ significantly, either periodically or as part of longer-term temporal trends, from regional or global records [12,13]. By studying existing localized historical temperature and precipitation records, an objective assessment of the nature of fine-scale climate trends can be made, which in turn can be used to make a more realistic assessment of possible climatic trends to come
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