Pre -harvest forecasting models for kharif rice yield in coastal Karnataka using weather indices

Abstract

The data of kharif rice yield and the weather parameters from 1985 to 2009 is used for developing statistical models for three coastal districts of Karnataka. These pre-harvest forecasting models were developed for rice yield forecasts for Dakshin Kannada, Udupi and Uttar Kannada districts respectively. The weather indices like Z21, Z251 and Time were able to forecast the yield of rice for Udupi district. Similarly Z120, Z150 and Z241 were found to be most efficient predictors for Dakshin Kannada district. Only one variable i.e. Z451 was found to be able to forecast the rice yield in Uttar Kannada district. The validation of the model was done for a period of three years from 2010-2012. The forecasting models were able to explain the inter annual variation in the rice production to an extent of 86, 95 and 74% for Dakshin Kannada, Udupi and Uttar Kannada districts respectively. Hence these models can be used to forecastrice yield two months before harvest.