Practical implementation of a hybrid fuzzy neural network for one-day-ahead load forecasting

Abstract

The paper presents the development and practical implementation of a hybrid short-term electrical load forecasting model for a power system control centre. This hybrid architecture incorporates a Kohonen self-organising feature map with unsupervised learning for classification of daily load patterns, a supervised backpropagation neural network for mapping the temperature/load relationship, and a fuzzy expert system for postprocessing of neural network outputs. This load forecaster requires minimum operator intervention and can be trained adaptively on-line. The developed model has been tested extensively in the actual operating environment and has been shown to outperform the existing regression-based model.