Power Transition, Challenge and the (Re)Emergence of China

Abstract

We use power transition theory and leadership long cycle theory's challenger model to investigate ongoing deep structural changes that may affect fundamentally the prospects for twenty-first century Sino-American conflict. We specifically evaluate which of these structural theories most accurately maps the power transition process. Whereas both theories offer important insights, the challenger model's focus on qualitative dimensions of structural change are more important to understanding the dynamics of a potential Sino-American power transition.