Power Sharing and Coups d’état in Postconflict Settings: Evidence From Burundi and Guinea-Bissau

Abstract

In postconflict settings, peace agreements often include power-sharing provisions that integrate formerly warring parties into the state. The aim of such provisions is to prevent conflict from resuming. At the same time, however, they can inadvertently increase the risk of coups d’état. Existing research identifies a correlation between peace agreements and coups, but the causal mechanisms underlying this association remain underexplored. This article argues that power sharing affects the motives of incumbent elites to intervene in politics via a coup and the opportunity for former rebels to do so successfully. Evidence from coup attempts in Burundi and Guinea-Bissau illustrates the plausibility of these arguments and suggests ways to extend them in future work. While debate remains over whether power sharing prevents civil war recurrence, this article shows how it can create incentives for other forms of political violence.