Abstract
This chapter provides an analytical overview of the main drivers of turbulence in the Middle East at the global, regional, and domestic levels. It argues that the Middle East regional order has fundamentally changed and that proxy warfare has become the dominant mode of power politics since 2003. The US ‘global war on terror’ and the 2003 Iraq war brought an end to America’s unipolar dominance in the region and the consequences of these conflicts have included a shift in the regional balance of power in favour of Iran. The 2011 Arab uprisings also unleashed a set of regional dynamics that produced increased intervention, further instability and violence, and new opportunities for Russian and Chinese influence in the Middle East. After examining the Biden administration’s policies toward the region, the chapter concludes that ‘profound changes at the global, regional and domestic levels have created a new regional structure which is not amenable to the restoration of an American-led unipolar system,’ despite the Biden administration’s efforts.
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