Power outage prediction for natural hazards using synthetic power distribution systems

Abstract

Power outage prediction for natural hazards usually relies on one of two approaches, statistical models or fragility-based methods. Statistical models have provided strong predictive accuracy, but only in an area-aggregated manner. Fragility-based approaches have not offered strong prediction accuracy and have been limited to systems for which system topology or performance models are available. In this paper, we create an algorithm that (1) generates a synthetic power system layout for any U.S. city based only on public data and then (2) simulates power outages at the level of individual buildings under hazard loading using fragility functions. This approach provides much more localized, building-level estimates of the likelihood of losing power due to a natural hazard. We validate our model by comparing the network properties and power outage events based on our approach with data from a real power system in Ohio. We find that our model relies on less input data comparing to statistical learning approaches yet can make accurate predictions, provided accurate fragility curves are available.