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Abstract
We aim to estimate the power distribution in the Council of the European Union—both a priori and a posteriori. With respect to the latter, our analysis suggests that several previously used indices are ill-suited for this application. By introducing minimal modifications, we propose a new index and compare it with previous constructions in a unified framework. Empirically, we find that that all countries gain a priori voting power in the Council as a result of Brexit. We rely on data from the Chapel Hill Expert survey to compute a posteriori power and find that it is more unequally distributed than a priori power. Specifically, a posteriori power is almost exclusively held by relatively few rather populous states (yet not the United Kingdom). As regards Brexit, France appears as the main benefactor in terms of gaining a posteriori power; Poland loses substantive power in several areas but remains one of the most powerful EU member states.
Highlights
We study the voting power distribution in decision-making bodies facing binary ‘yay-nay’ decisions with a particular emphasis on the effect of the removal of a member
Status quo power index calculations were implemented in Wolfram Mathematica using Monte Carlo simulations with 100,000 random picks according to the measures { j}j∈NEU and for each policy area
BUD The Commission favors more European Union (EU) authority over national economic and budgetary policies, which by inspection is rejected by a robust qualified majority (13) in the Council by default both before and after Brexit
Summary
We study the voting power distribution in decision-making bodies facing binary ‘yay-nay’ decisions with a particular emphasis on the effect of the removal of a member. Such situations are ubiquitous—and general will be our methods—but the subject is topical in the context of the European Union (EU), be it due to potential voting right suspensions in the wake of recent infringement proceedings (Poland, Hungary) or due to the exit of one of its largest members [United Kingdom (UK)]. Speaking, voting power is defined as the ability of each individual member (‘player’) of a decision-making body to change the outcome of a vote.
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