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Abstract
We propose a simple new a posteriori power index and apply it to the Council of the European Union as a case in point. Our index is developed within a framework that allows for a systematization and generalization of several existing a posteriori voting power indices as well as a transparent and intuitive connection with standard a priori power indices. Critically, our analysis reveals various conceptual difficulties of existing approaches to which our own index can be seen as a minimal remedy. Empirical results are based on data from the Chapel Hill Expert survey and indicate that a posteriori power in the Council is more unequally distributed than a priori power. More precisely, it is almost exclusively held by relatively few rather populous states, predominantly by France, Germany and Poland. The United Kingdom, by contrast, is usually found to be significantly less powerful. As regards Brexit, France appears as the main benefactor in terms of gaining a posteriori power; Poland loses substantive power in several areas but remains one of the most powerful EU member states.
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