Poverty Eradication in Fragile Places: Prospects for Harvesting the Highest Hanging Fruit by 2030

Gary Milante,Barry Hughes,Alison Burt

doi:10.5334/sta.435

Abstract

This paper explores the range of likely and potential progress on poverty eradication in fragile states to 2030. Using the International Futures model and recently released 2011 International Comparison Program data, this paper calculates current (2015) poverty for a US$1.90 poverty line, and subsequently runs three scenarios. The estimates suggest that there are 485 million poor in fragile states in 2015, a 33.5 per cent poverty rate. This paper’s Base Case scenario results in a forecasted 22.8 per cent poverty rate in fragile states by 2030. The most optimistic scenario yields a 13.1 per cent poverty rate for this group of countries (257 million). An optimistic scenario reflecting political constraints in fragile states yields a 19.1 per cent poverty rate (376 million). Even under the most optimistic circumstances, fragile states will almost certainly be home to hundreds of millions of poor in 2030, suggesting that the world must do things dramatically differently if we are to reach the high hanging fruit and truly ‘leave no one behind’ in the next fifteen years of development.

Highlights

Poverty reduction in the last 15 years has been overwhelmingly successful
The International Futures (IFs) Base Case is ‘in the neighborhood’ of forecasts carried in the research of Chandy, et al (2013 and 2014), and Edward and Sumner (2013a)
Given the differences between fragile states described above, it is no surprise that the prospects for poverty reduction vary by country as well

Summary

Introduction

Poverty reduction in the last 15 years has been overwhelmingly successful. This success was highlighted by the first target of Millennium Development Goal 1 (MDG1) – reducing global $1.25-a-day poverty by half between 1990 and 2015 – being met five years early in 2010 (Chen and Ravallion, 2012). With a few notable exceptions, there has been relatively little conversation about the prospects for poverty reduction and eradication in fragile and conflict-affected countries (FCS) This oversight has four bases: i) the earlier MDG goal was a global goal, ii) most of the poor have historically been located in non-fragile states, iii) fragile states have historically made the least progress on poverty reduction, and iv) development interventions have typically Milante et al: Poverty Eradication in Fragile Places not always) been more effective in nonfragile environments In light of these realities, most policy focus over recent decades has been on poverty reduction in the rest of the developing world, where the proverbial fruit has been relatively abundant and lowhanging. This paper assesses the feasibility of reaching the highest-hanging fruit – poverty eradication in fragile states

Methods

Results

Conclusion