Potentials for energy-saving and efficiency capacities in Iran: An interpretive structural model to prioritize future national policies

Abstract

Energy drives national economies with a positive correlation. Global environmental concerns, growth of the world population, and emerging of developing economies with more need for energy resources, would change the future of energy markets and human lives. To manage energy shortage and energy-related environmental threats, decision-makers have to decide between three potential solutions [1], to develop supply value [2], to suppress energy (all types) demands, or [3] to adopt a hybrid strategy. This paper is aimed to uncover potential saving capacities to fill the supply-demand gap based on efficiency improvements for the case of Iran as a developing economy with increasing energy needs. The methodology has been designed based on energy balance calculations which have been evaluated and validated through 47 expert panels under 9 major themes. Then, policy sets have been determined and to map how defined policies were interacting in the living energy, a system interpretive structural model was performed to determine direct and indirect relationships among policies. As a result, policymakers can prioritize and set a roadmap to approach the desired future. Findings showed for the case of supply-side Iranian energy management [1] maximizing electricity transmission and distribution efficiency [2], upgrading the consumption standard in equipment and processes (in the terms of energy production, conversion, and transmission), and [3] online monitoring of distribution networks are most basic and top priority policies. While for the case of demand-side “targeting energy subsidies” is the most crucial policy to support the Iranian energy efficiency improvement targets.