Potentials and opportunities of solar PV and wind energy sources in Saudi Arabia: Land suitability, techno-socio-economic feasibility, and future variability

Abstract

Solar and wind energy sources hold significant potential to meet the escalating energy demand in Saudi Arabia sustainably. This research aims to assess the feasibility and prospects of deploying solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy systems in Saudi Arabia (SA). The study adopts a comprehensive approach, encompassing spatial analysis of land suitability, techno-socio-economic feasibility studies, and prediction of renewable energy (RE) resource variability and trends using machine learning techniques. Geographical Information System (GIS) spatial analysis is employed to identify suitable areas for establishing solar PV and wind farms based on multi-criteria evaluation methods. Techno-socio-economic feasibility analysis of solar PV and wind energy systems, under various configurations and scenarios, is conducted using the System Advisor Model (SAM) tool. Furthermore, a Support Vector Machine (SVM) machine learning algorithm is developed and deployed to forecast Global Horizontal Irradiation (GHI), wind speed, and influential weather parameters at different locations in SA. The projections of these variables derived from global climate models are utilized to analyze prospects and variabilities. The land suitability analysis identified four optimal locations for large-scale solar PV fields in Tabuk, Al Madinah, Makkah, and Riyadh provinces. Additionally, four promising wind farms were found in Al Madinah, Makkah, Riyadh, and Eastern provinces. The analysis also identified one location in Al Jouf province suitable for hybrid systems combining solar PV and wind energy. The techno-economic assessment revealed that wind farms performed best overall, achieving a capacity factor of 42.6 % in Al Madinah province. Although current tariffs render projects economically unviable, solar PV, wind energy, and hybrid solar PV-wind technologies are economically feasible in SA at Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) rates above $32.8/MWh, $26.1/MWh, and $50.6/MWh, respectively. The social development analysis estimated potential job creation from solar PV and wind energy deployment under different scenarios from 2020 to 2060, indicating that more ambitious climate targets could translate to millions of renewable energy jobs. The SVM model predicted solar irradiance with an R-squared value of 0.893. The CMIP6 model was then used to project the GHI for SA in 2049, suggesting an increase of approximately 19 %. Wind speed is also expected to rise roughly 5 % over the same period. The integration of GIS spatial analysis, techno-socio-economic modeling, and machine learning-based forecasting provides comprehensive insights into harnessing solar and wind energy in SA. This study facilitates evidence-based planning and risk assessment, crucial for a sustainable energy transition. The insights and roadmap derived from this research can inform policy frameworks, support the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UNSDGs), and attract private investments for RE development in SA. Consequently, this study establishes solar and wind energy as viable and promising solutions for meeting SA's growing energy demands sustainably, while minimizing the associated environmental impact.