Potential spatial effects of opening Arctic shipping routes on the shipping network of ports between China and Europe

Abstract

More recently, the accelerated melting of sea ice and the trial operation of container liners in the Arctic have accelerated the opening of Arctic shipping routes(ASR), while providing a realistic possibility for the regular operation of an Arctic route. The normalised operation of the ASR will invariably have important effects on traditional transport routes, reshaping the global marine shipping geography and promoting the geopolitical and economic pattern evolution of the Northern Hemisphere countries based on shipping accessibility. Utilising the shipping data of China and Europe in the context of ‘One Belt, One Road’, this study establishes a shipping network with the normal operation of the ASR through a scenario simulation based on the theory of complex networks and explores the changes in the shipping connection pattern and network structure characteristics with traditional and Arctic shipping lanes. Further, it analyses the changes in the port nodes in terms of connection breadth and depth, as well as the resulting changes in network accessibility, and provides comparisons and analyses of the changes in network characteristics between scenarios to measure the shipping network vulnerability and degree of change. The results show that under the ASR, the trend of "big loose, small concentrated" maritime links is obvious and shows the typical "core-periphery" structure; the Suez Canal is gradually losing its core position in the network under the impact of the ASR, the accessibility of Chinese ports is changing more sharply than that of European ports, and the polarisation process of the Murmansk port is accelerating and the network is more stable and robust. The Suez Canal is losing its core position under the impact of the ASR, the accessibility of Chinese ports is changing more sharply than that of European ports, the polarisation of the Murmansk port is accelerating and the stability and robustness of the network is stronger.