Potential Socioeconomic Impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Operation on Inland Fisheries in the High Aswan Dam Reservoir

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ABSTRACTThe High Aswan Dam (HAD) reservoir is considered as the most vital reservoir in Egypt and as a source of freshwater fish. It contributes 69% of the total inland fisheries production. The annual fish production from the HAD reservoir is estimated by the General Authority for Fishery Resources Development (GAFRD) as 12,000 ton/year. The HAD reservoir is the main source of freshwater fisheries in Egypt. That amount of fish in the reservoir guarantees a constant source of income and employment since the HAD establishment. Fish production is significantly affected by three environmental key parameters: water level fluctuation, water temperature change, and sedimentation amount. Any alteration in these three parameters will significantly affect the social and economic status of the HAD reservoir fisheries. This study aims to quantify the potential socioeconomic consequences of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) operation on the HAD reservoir fishery. To quantify these potential impacts, this research utilizes pre‐GERD socioeconomic data gathered by national and international organizations such as WorldFish (https://worldfishcenter.org/) and GAFRD, to establish baseline data. The change in predicted socioeconomic assessment is carried out based on the water level, temperature change, and sedimentation, after the GERD operation. A significant reduction in fish production is anticipated, with an estimated average decline by 48.5% compared to current production rates. This decline is expected to lead to a decrease in the overall socioeconomic value of the HAD reservoir fishery, potentially resulting in job losses for 25% to 72% of the fishermen and distributors employees. The total fishing income is expected to decrease, because of the decrease in fish production. The research findings highlight the importance of policy considerations to mitigate the possible socioeconomic impacts. Potential policy interventions could include stricter fishing regulations, alternative livelihood programs for affected communities, and collaborative management strategies with upstream dam operators.