Abstract
BackgroundClimatic change is expected to lead to changes in species' geographical ranges. Adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation require quantitative estimates of the magnitude, direction and rates of these potential changes. Such estimates are of greatest value when they are made for large ensembles of species and for extensive (sub-continental or continental) regions.Methodology/Principal FindingsFor six climate scenarios for 2070–99 changes have been estimated for 431 European breeding bird species using models relating species' distributions in Europe to climate. Mean range centroid potentially shifted 258–882 km in a direction between 341° (NNW) and 45° (NE), depending upon the climate scenario considered. Potential future range extent averaged 72–89% of the present range, and overlapped the present range by an average of 31–53% of the extent of the present range. Even if potential range changes were realised, the average number of species breeding per 50×50 km grid square would decrease by 6·8–23·2%. Many species endemic or near-endemic to Europe have little or no overlap between their present and potential future ranges; such species face an enhanced extinction risk as a consequence of climatic change.Conclusions/SignificanceAlthough many human activities exert pressures upon wildlife, the magnitude of the potential impacts estimated for European breeding birds emphasises the importance of climatic change. The development of adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation in the face of climatic change is an urgent need; such strategies must take into account quantitative evidence of potential climatic change impacts such as is presented here.
Highlights
The response to climatic change of species’ distribution and abundance patterns arises from a combination of behavioural [1], genetic [2,3] and spatial [4] responses
Our results show that the potential impact of climatic change on European birds is a combination of: very rapid potential range displacements of large magnitude, generally in a northward direction; an average reduction in the extent of species’ ranges; a limited mean overlap between species’ potential future and present ranges; a general reduction in the number of species breeding in any area; and an increased extinction risk for some species, including a number of those endemic or near endemic to Europe
No comparable synthesis of modelling results for a large ensemble of species and at a continental scale, such as that presented here for the birds breeding in Europe, has previously been reported to our knowledge
Summary
The response to climatic change of species’ distribution and abundance patterns arises from a combination of behavioural [1], genetic [2,3] and spatial [4] responses. In order to inform the development of adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation, as well as to assess the potential consequences for ecosystem structure and function, quantitative estimates are required of the likely magnitude, direction and rates of these potential range changes. Such estimates can be made using models that relate species’ distributions to present climate. Adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation require quantitative estimates of the magnitude, direction and rates of these potential changes Such estimates are of greatest value when they are made for large ensembles of species and for extensive (sub-continental or continental) regions. The development of adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation in the face of climatic change is an urgent need; such strategies must take into account quantitative evidence of potential climatic change impacts such as is presented here
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