Potential impacts of climate change on suitable habitats of Marco Polo sheep in China

Abstract

Climate change may lead to biodiversity loss and species extinction. Understanding the impacts of climate change on the distribution pattern of endangered species is of great value to the identification of priority reserves and the formulation of relevant conservation strategies. Based on the distribution data of Marco Polo sheep (Ovis ammon polii) obtained from the field survey in Taxkorgan Nature Reserve (TNR) in Xinjiang during 2017-2018, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the distribution pattern of its suitable habitat under climate change. The results showed that the suitable habitat of Marco Polo sheep was mainly distributed in the northwest of the TNR, with temperature as the key factor affecting its suitable habitat distribution. Under the medium and high emission concentration (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), the suitable habitat area of Marco Polo sheep would decrease in the next two periods (2050s and 2070s), with the loss rate of suitable habitat being as high as 40.5%. The loss of suitable habitat was mainly located in the low-altitude area, while the area of suitable habitat increased correspondingly in the high-altitude area. The area of suitable habitat from low elevation to high elevation increased with the increases of greenhouse gas emission concentration. According to the results of centroid transfer, the suitable habitat was mainly moved to the west, namely Tajikistan, the main distribution country of Marco Polo sheep.