Abstract
A simulation experiment was carried out using Agriculture Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model to assess the impact of climate change (change in temperature and rainfall patterns) on productivity of maize in the state Madhya Pradesh. Thirty districts with 74 soil profiles from Madhya Pradesh state were considered for the study. However, we are presenting the average results over districts and soil profiles. A well-parameterised and validated APSIM model was used to simulate the effects of temperature and rainfall on maize grain and biomass yield. Increase in temperature having negative effects on both grain and biomass yield of maize. While increasing the temperature from base to 5 °C, the grain and biomass yield of maize decreased by 40% and 28%, respectively. Further, increasing the temperature by 1 °C could reduce the grain and biomass yield by 10% and 8 %, respectively. A small increase in maize yield was observed by 10% decrease of rainfall from the base. While rainfall increase by 10% or more and decrease by >20% would results in lower maize yield and biomass. The decrease in maize yield due to increase in temperature could be attributed to decrease in duration of the crop. One-degree increase in temperature may decrease the duration of crop by 4.3 days. This study also revealed that agronomic management practices such as delaying of sowing dates could reduce the impact of climate change on crop yield to a considerable extent. By adopting the sowing date between 7th and 14th July, it may be possible to reduce the impact of temperature change on maize grain and biomass yield in central Indian condition.
Highlights
Maize (Zea mays L.) is one of the most versatile crops owing to wider adaptability under diverse agro-climatic conditions
In central India, in Madhya Pradesh, maize is mostly grown as rainfed crop, and its productivity tends to be affected by unpredictable climatic scenarios
The high temperature leads to embryo abortion in maize, which is related to the inhibition of photosynthesis which results in reduction in assimilates available for kernel development (Sehgal et al, 2018)
Summary
Maize (Zea mays L.) is one of the most versatile crops owing to wider adaptability under diverse agro-climatic conditions Worldwide, it is cultivated on nearly 150 mha in about 160 countries, representing diverse soil, climate, biodiversity, and management practices, and contributes ~36% (782 million tonnes, mt) of global grain production (Singh et al, 2017). Temperature, soil water, runoff, and may reduce crop maturation period and increase yield variability and could reduce areas suitable for the production of many crops (Olesen and Bindi, 2002). This study was aimed to evaluate and assess the possible impacts of climate change on maize production in rainfed region of central India and develop adaptation strategies measures to offset its adverse impact
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