Potential impact of climate change on the distribution of the Eurasian Lynx (Lynx lynx) in Iran (Mammalia: Felidae)

Abstract

The Eurasian Lynx (Lynx lynx) is the biggest small cat inhabiting Iran. However, there is little knowledge about its distribution and conservation status. In this study, the maximum entropy approach was applied to relate presence records of the species to bioclimatic conditions of Iran. The current model was projected under eight different climate change scenarios to predict the future status of Eurasian Lynx distribution in 2050 and 2070. Results indicated that lynx favours habitats with low temperature, low variations in precipitation and relatively high amount of precipitation in driest season. Currently, 16% of the country area is suitable for the lynx and 10% of these suitable habitats is located inside the conservation area network. Under the lowest and highest carbon dioxide emission scenarios, 26 to 73 percent of suitable habitats will become unsuitable. Most of the remained suitable habitats for the lynx in the future are located in the north western of Iran, which is part of the Irano-Anatolian hotspot. There is an essential need to adapt the conservation area network to climate change to better conserve the lynx in Iran.