Abstract
The object of the study is the reserves of economic growth in the country on the example of Ukraine. One of the problems of such studies is the calculation of potential GDP, which is not observed, but is calculated on the basis of various methods. Also problematic is the choice of method/methods of calculating potential GDP and potential values of its factors. Any estimate of the potential value of a variable is based on one or more statistical relationships and therefore contains an element of uncertainty. In order to reduce uncertainty, 2 methods were used to determine the potential values of the components of GDP – the growth rate of employment, fixed capital and TFP (total factor productivity).
 The study used the methods of one-dimensional statistical filters Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King to estimate the potential values of GDP and the model of the production function to calculate potential GDP based on the potential values of its factors. The main reasons for the slowdown in Ukraine's GDP have been identified, the main of which is low capital productivity due to budget constraints. The second place in this ranking was taken by labor productivity, the last third – by TFP. Weak productivity and investment growth reinforced each other. Capital has the highest growth potential in Ukraine. Therefore, measures to stimulate capital investment, including in research and innovation and human capital, are important. Other factors that affect GDP through labor productivity and TFP are population aging, emigration, and tight lending conditions. To neutralize these factors, it is necessary to create new jobs, facilitate the conditions for obtaining loans by enterprises, stimulate advanced training and lifelong learning. The proposed approach to the separate calculation of potential values of GDP factors and their analysis find reserves for GDP growth. This provides the advantages of this method over other approaches.
Highlights
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant damage to the economy, which requires decisive action by the government
The study has obtained the potential values of GDP and its three independent variables – employment, capital investment and total factor productivity
That potential output/GDP is a concept, used in economic analysis to measure the highest level of production that an economy can achieve without creating inflationary pressures
Summary
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant damage to the economy, which requires decisive action by the government. One method of determining the presence or absence of these sources is to calculate potential GDP. Analysis of potential GDP factors reveals the factors, hindering GDP growth and sources of economic growth. Potential GDP is not observed, but is calculated using different methods. Approaches to determining potential GDP and GDP gap and analysis of the results are described in many works of the International Monetary Fund. In [2], Swedish researchers consider a number of different methods that can be used to estimate the potential output and production gap. These indicators were used to identify opportunities for sustainable non-inflationary growth and to assess the position of macroeconomic policy
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