Potential Effects of Projected Decrease in Annual Rainfall on Spatial Distribution of High Andean Wetlands in Southern Peru

Abstract

High in the Central Andes, wetlands important to people and wildlife occur as medium to small patches within vast montane grasslands. Determining the effects of projected climate change on these high Andean wetlands is hindered by the lack of fine-scale environmental data. We used remote sensing data to develop an estimate of approximately 2.5% for wetland habitat in the study region. Assessing the potential effects of climate change relied on two assumptions. First, mean annual rainfall is an essential variable in the occurrence of wetlands (R2 = 0.82, p < 0.01) within the semi-arid climate of the high Andes. Second, climate change projections indicate a decrease in mean annual rainfall within the study region. In our linear regression model the projected decrease in annual rainfall resulted in a total wetland loss for watersheds within most semi-arid parts of the study region. Here, we provide quantitative data for Andean wetlands to inform conservation and land use decisions. Our study results also suggest that conservation efforts should focus on a more integrative approach including smaller wetlands at the watershed level as well as regions outside protected areas.