Potential earthquake risk estimations by application of a simulation process

Abstract

Potential earthquake risks are defined here in terms of the annual probability of exceeding a peak ground acceleration level at the free surface of a site. Potential earthquake risks in Israel were estimated by Shapira (1981, 1982), by considering the apparent seismicity of the region during the last 145 years. In this paper, a simulation process has been applied in order to examine the reliability of previous estimations and to provide another general tool for earthquake risk evaluation. A relatively simple Monte-Carlo procedure was developed and has been used for estimating, as an example, the potential earthquake risk in Jerusalem (Israel). The estimated probabilities obtained by the simulation procedure are, for all practical purposes, similar to the apparent probabilities previously determined by the author. However, a re-evaluation of the potential earthquake risks in Israel will be required when an attenuation equation, based on local and regional acceleration measurements, has been developed.