Potential Distribution Shifts of Plant Species under Climate Change in Changbai Mountains, China

Lei Wang,Haibo Du,Shuang Ma,Zhengfang Wu,Shengwei Zong,Wen J. Wang

doi:10.3390/f10060498

Abstract

Shifts in alpine tundra plant species have important consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem services. However, recent research on upward species shifts have focused mainly on polar and high-latitude regions and it therefore remains unclear whether such vegetation change trends also are applicable to the alpine tundra at the southern edges of alpine tundra species distribution. This study evaluated an alpine tundra region within the Changbai Mountains, China, that is part of the southernmost alpine tundra in eastern Eurasia. We investigated plant species shifts in alpine tundra within the Changbai Mountains over the last three decades (1984–2015) by comparing contemporary survey results with historical ones and evaluated potential changes in the distribution of dwarf shrub and herbaceous species over the next three decades (2016–2045) using a combination of observations and simulations. The results of this study revealed that the encroachment of herbaceous plants had altered tundra vegetation to a significant extent over the last three decades, especially within low and middle alpine tundra regions in Changbai Mountains, China. The herbaceous species would continue shifting upward and expanding while their dwarf shrub counterparts would continue shifting upward and shrinking over the next three decades under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The upward shifts of plant species would not keep up with the rate of climate warming under the RCP 8.5 scenarios. The dominant plant tundra species may transform from dwarf shrubs to herbaceous varieties. The results of this study provide a scientific basis for biodiversity protection under climate change and a reference data set for additional research on alpine vegetation dynamics.

Highlights

Alpine tundra is an important component of alpine ecosystems; this habitat type covers about three percent of the Earth’s land surface and harbors about four percent of higher plant species [1].Plant species that live on alpine tundra are adapted to specific and harsh conditions including low temperature, high humidity, and large daily temperature range [2]
The result of this study showed that tundra vegetation changed significantly by 2015, comprising herb (D. angustifolia and S. sitchensis)-shrub, shrub-herb, dwarf shrub, and sparse shrub tundra types by this time (Table 1)
Some recent research has shown that the Sus scrofa population has been increasing within the Changbai Mountains [55]; we identified S. scrofa activities during our alpine tundra survey adjacent to the tree line (Supplementary Figure S7), utilizing R. chrysanthum communities to find food

Summary

Introduction

Alpine tundra is an important component of alpine ecosystems; this habitat type covers about three percent of the Earth’s land surface and harbors about four percent of higher plant species [1].Plant species that live on alpine tundra are adapted to specific and harsh conditions including low temperature, high humidity, and large daily temperature range [2]. The very particular kinds of geographic environments that include alpine tundra plant species have tended to shift upward in elevation as a result of global warming [4]. This phenomenon has been shown to drive upward shifts in elevation in both the leading and rear edges of mountain plant species [5]. These shifts in plant species undoubtedly alter the functional composition, vegetation albedo, surface energy exchange, soil temperatures, and carbon cycling [6], as well as biodiversity and ecosystem

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion