Abstract
In this study, six commonly used ecological niche models including genetic algorithm for rule-set production, support vector machine, maximum entropy and ecological niche factor analysis, DOMAIN and Bioclim were evaluated for predict potential suitable areas for flue-cured tobacco with medium aroma type. The ecological factors, such as topography and climate parameters, were collected from representative sites growing flue-cured tobacco with medium aroma type. Average receiver operating characteristic curve and area under the curve are calculated to assess the prediction accuracy of these models. The comparative results showed that maximum entropy model outperformed others. The potential distribution areas for producing flue-cured tobacco with medium aroma type are identified by the best performed model.
Highlights
China is a big tobacco-producing and consuming country
Ecological niche model is widely used in the risk analysis of harmful biological invasion (Wang, 2007; Sun and Liu, 2010), plant diseases and insect pests distribution prediction (Liu et al, 2010), prediction and protect endangered species of wild fauna and flora distribution area (Wu and Lv, 2009), etc
The digital elevation model and climate data are from http://www.worldclim.org/, the administrative map of China with the accuracy of 1:4000000 is from http://nfgis.nsdi.gov.cn/nfgis/chinese/c_xz.htm and the solar radiation data is interpolated by Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Thin Plate Smoothing spline (TPS) (Wu et al, 2013b)
Summary
China is a big tobacco-producing and consuming country. The production of flue-cured tobacco in China accounted for 52% of global production (Liu, 2004). The total area producing flue-cured tobacco with medium aroma type is larger than that of heavy and light types across the country. The objective of the current work is to predict the potential suitable areas for producing fluecured tobacco with medium aroma type based on ecological niche models. Ecological factors including topography and climate were collected from the representative counties producing flue-cured tobacco with medium aroma type. Six ecological niche models are developed and compared using the collected data and the best performed model is used to predict the potential areas which are suitable for planting medium aroma type of flue-cured tobacco. The results are expected to establish the ecological evaluation model or system of medium aroma type of flue-cured tobacco, plan the producing area and improve production technology
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