Potential Distribution of Primates in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico Under Current and Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

The distribution of primate species, under current and climate change scenarios, constitutes crucial information for their successful conservation. In areas with limited information on their distribution, simple extrapolations based on historical records may not reflect the actual distribution of a species. Here we model the potential distribution, under a current and a climate change scenario for the year 2020, of the two species of ateline primates that inhabit the Yucatan peninsula, in Mexico: spider (Ateles geoffroyi) and howler monkeys (Alouatta pigra). Data from a recent survey in 78 locations throughout the Yucatan peninsula were used as inputs for the DOMAIN algorithm, which estimates the similarity between the predictor variables found in the surveyed locations and those in the potential range of the species. The distributions estimated using this algorithm can be considered as being similar to the surveyed locations with a given degree of certainty (in this case, we used thresholds of 95, 97, and 99 %). We have used two different strategies for estimating the potential distribution of howler and spider monkeys in the Yucatan peninsula. The first strategy employed biophysical variables as predictors and obtained areas of potential distribution for both species that range from 19 to 81 % of the region’s extent, depending on the threshold. The second strategy began by using the same biophysical variables to generate potential distributions for important trees in the diet of both primates, and then used the similarity values thus obtained as predictors of the potential distribution of monkeys. This strategy yielded somewhat smaller areas with similarity values above the threshold, comprising between 11 and 75 % of the region’s extent. Semievergreen forest, the most abundant original vegetation cover in the Yucatan peninsula, was not the most abundant vegetation within the potential distribution areas, although it became more important as the threshold of habitat similarity was increased from 95 to 99 %. Protected areas, particularly the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve, include a small proportion (between 8 and 18 %, depending on the species, predictor variables and similarity threshold) of the species’ potential distribution. Climate change scenarios predict a slight increase in the extent of similar habitat for both species in 2020, particularly in the south-central portion of the peninsula. Less than 20 % of the extent of potential distribution under current and climate change scenarios lies within protected areas. For both species, the largest extent with similarity values >97 % lies in the northeastern Yucatan peninsula, an area with little protection, subject to high pressures for development and that could become less hospitable for both primate species under a climate change scenario.