Potential Distribution of Bryophyte, Entodon challengeri (Entodontaceae), under Climate Warming in China

Abstract

Entodon challengeri (Paris) Cardot has important environmental monitoring and medical value. It is critical we inspect the influence of climate warming on its spatiotemporal distribution pattern. Based on actual geographical distribution records and environmental datasets, a MaxEnt model coupled with ArcGIS was executed to display the potential suitable habitats of E. challengeri in China under future climate warming scenarios. We showed the following. (i) The simulation accuracy of the MaxEnt model was excellent, with an AUC value of 0.918. (ii) Annual precipitation and precipitation during the wettest month were the critical factors that restricted the distribution range of E. challengeri. (iii) Current suitable habitats were concentrated in the northern temperate zone in eastern China. (iv) Under climate warming scenarios, on the spatial scale, the distributional pattern presented a shrinkage in the south and expansion in the north, which was more obvious in the RCP8.5 than in the RCP2.6 scenario. On the time scale, shrinkage of the potential distributional range was greater in the 2070s than in the 2050s. (v) The distributional centroids shifted to the northeast. In general, future climate warming will have a great negative effect on the suitability of habitats of E. challengeri.