Potential distribution of Blumea balsamifera in China using MaxEnt and the ex situ conservation based on its effective components and fresh leaf yield.

Lingliang Guan,Qiuyu Mou,Yunsha Gou,Pan Jiang,Rulin Wang,Xueyan Zhu,Y Wen Xu,Yuxia Yang

doi:10.1007/s11356-022-18953-1

Abstract

Blumea balsamifera is a famous Chinese Minority Medicine, which has a long history in Miao, Li, Zhuang, and other minority areas. In recent years, due to the influence of natural and human factors, the distribution area of B. balsamifera resources has a decreasing trend. Therefore, it is very important to analyze the suitability of B. balsamifera in China. Following three climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) under 2050s and 2070s, geographic information technology (GIS) and maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) were used to simulate the ecological suitability of B. balsamifera. The contents of L-borneol and total flavonoids of B. balsamifera in different populations were determined by gas chromatography (GC) and ultravioletspectrophotometry (UV). The results showed that the key environmental variables affecting the distribution of B. balsamifera were mean temperature of coldest quarter (6.18-26.57 ℃), precipitation of driest quarter (22.46-169.7mm), annual precipitation (518.36-1845.29mm), and temperature seasonality (291.31-878.87). Under current climate situation, the highly suitable habitat was mainly located western Guangxi, southern Yunnan, most of Hainan, southwestern Guizhou, southwestern Guangdong, southeastern Fujian, and western Taiwan, with a total area of 24.1 × 104 km2. The areas of the moderately and poorly suitable habitats were 27.57 × 104 km2 and 42.43 × 104 km2, respectively. Under the future climate change scenarios, the areas of the highly, moderately, and poorly suitable habitats of B. balsamifera showed a significant increasing trend, the geometric center of the total suitable habitats of B. balsamifera would move to the northeast. In recent years, the planting area of B. balsamifera has been reduced on a large scale in Guizhou, and its ex situ protection is imperative. By comparison, the content of L-borneol, total flavonoids and fresh leaf yield had no significant difference between Guizhou and Hainan (P > 0.05), which indicated that Hainan is one of the best choice for ex situ protection of B. balsamifera.

Highlights

According to the fifth IPCC Assessment Report (IPCC AR5), the global average land surface temperature has increased by 0.85 °C from 1880 to 2012, and the average temperature from 2003 to 2012 has increased by 0.78 °C compared with that from 1850 to 1900, and it is expected that it will continue to increase by 0.3 °C to 0.7 °C in 2035 (Zou et al, 2015)
The results showed that mean temperature of coldest quarter (42.8%) was the most important variable determining the distribution of B. balsamifera
Percent contribution of each variable to the potential distribution of B. balsamifera defined by MaxEnt

Summary

Introduction

According to the fifth IPCC Assessment Report (IPCC AR5), the global average land surface temperature has increased by 0.85 °C from 1880 to 2012, and the average temperature from 2003 to 2012 has increased by 0.78 °C compared with that from 1850 to 1900, and it is expected that it will continue to increase by 0.3 °C to 0.7 °C in 2035 (Zou et al, 2015). The extreme weather increases, the cryosphere begins to degenerate, and the ecological environment continues to deteriorate, which leads to significant changes in species migration patterns, seasonal activities, phenology, and geographical distribution, and has a profound impact on the natural ecosystem and the sustainable development of human society (Fu et al, 2005; Abrahms et al, 2017; Williams et al, 2020). Under the background of rising temperature and changing precipitation pattern, the living environment of species will change, and some of them will migrate to high latitude areas (Wu et al, 2011; Läderach et al, 2016; Guo et al, 2017; Yang et al, 2020; Zhang et al, 2020). In order to understand the change of species adaptability and geographical distribution under the future climate change, and how to take targeted measures to protect rare species and maintain species diversity, many scholars have carried out the simulation and prediction of species geographical distribution under different climate scenarios (Wróblewska and Mirski, 2018; Donatti et al, 2020; Momblanch et al, 2020; Wu et al, 2021)

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion