Abstract
This paper presents a comprehensive study to assess the impact of climate change on Egypt’s water resources, focusing on irrigation water for agricultural crops, considering that the agriculture sector is the largest consumer of water in Egypt. The study aims to estimate future climate conditions using general circulation models (GCMs), to assess the impact of climate change and temperature increase on water demands for irrigation using the CROPWAT 8 model, and to determine the suitable irrigation type to adapt with future climate change. A case study was selected in the Middle part of Egypt. The study area includes Giza, Bani-Sweif, Al-Fayoum, and Minya governorates. The irrigation water requirements for major crops under current weather conditions and future climatic changes were estimated. Under the conditions of the four selected models CCSM-30, GFDLCM20, GFDLCM21, and GISS-EH, as well as the chosen scenario of A1BAIM, climate model (MAGICC/ScenGen) was applied in 2050 and 2100 to estimate the potential rise in the annual mean temperature in Middle Egypt. The results of the MAGICC/SceGen model indicated that the potential rise in temperature in the study area will be 2.12 °C in 2050, and 3.96 °C in 2100. The percentage of increase in irrigation water demands for winter crops under study ranged from 6.1 to 7.3% in 2050, and from 11.7 to 13.2% in 2100. At the same time, the increase in irrigation water demands for summer crops ranged from 4.9 to 5.8% in 2050, and from 9.3 to 10.9% in 2100. For Nili crops, the increase ranged from 5.0 to 5.1% in 2050, and from 9.6 to 9.9% in 2100. The increase in water demands due to climate change will affect the water security in Egypt, as the available water resources are limited, and population growth is another challenge which requires a proper management of water resources.
Highlights
The climate change impact on Egypt’s water resources can be considered a significant challenge due to the dependence of its large and growing population on the Nile River
This study focuses on providing decision makers with data on the amount of irrigation water needed for major crops under climate change conditions, in an effort to manage saving methods for these quantities on, or to determine the appropriate area that can be grown under future conditions and to develop plans and strategies to utilize the lost area in the event of an inability to provide quantities under climate change conditions
In regards to future climate changes and their effects on the water needs of winter crops, the results indicated that values of Irrigation Water Requirements (IWR) in 2050 varied from 4023 to 6090 m3/ ha; 4317 to 6205 m3/ha; 5773 to 8712 m3/ha; 5148 to 7048 m3/ha; and 5457 to 7253 m3/ha for the respective winter crops
Summary
The climate change impact on Egypt’s water resources can be considered a significant challenge due to the dependence of its large and growing population on the Nile River. Fader et al [3] assessed how irrigation requirements in the Mediterranean region may be affected due to climate change and increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the context of demographic and technological change. The Mediterranean region, when applying some climate models at 3 ◦C global warming and above, showed a signal of increasing the net irrigation requirements, without the positive effects of higher CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. Kakumanu et al [5] stated that in recent years, water resources, agriculture, ecology, and other disciplines have become hotspots for research under the conditions of climate change characterized by global warming. Bocci and Smanis [6] indicated that for all southern Mediterranean countries, general atmospheric circulation model predicted changes in temperature and precipitation patterns are already affecting the sector through greater exposure to risks of floods and extreme droughts
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