Abstract
Abstract. Lusatia is considered one of the driest regions of Germany. The climatic water balance is negative even under current climate conditions. Due to global climate change, increased temperatures and a shift of precipitation from summer to winter are expected. Therefore, it is of major interest whether the excess water in winter can be stored and to which extent it is used up on increasing evapotranspiration. Thus, this study focuses on estimating potential climate change impacts on the water balance of two subcatchments of the River Spree using the Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM). Climate input was taken from 100 realisations each of two scenarios of the STatistical Analogue Resampling scheme STAR assuming a further temperature increase of 0 K (scenario A) and 2 K by the year 2055 (scenario B) respectively. Resulting from increased temperatures and a shift in precipitation from summer to winter actual evapotranspiration is supposed to increase in winter and early spring, but to decrease in later spring and early summer. This is less pronounced for scenario A than for scenario B. Consequently, also the decrease in discharge and groundwater recharge in late spring is lower for scenario A than for scenario B. The highest differences of runoff generation and groundwater recharge between the two scenarios but also the highest ranges within the scenarios occur in summer and early autumn. It is planned to estimate potential climate change for the catchments of Spree, Schwarze Elster and Lusatian Neisse.
Highlights
During the past decades a decrease in summer rainfall, an increase in winter precipitation and an increase in temperature in all seasons, especially in winter, has been observed for Germany (Schonwiese et al, 2006) and more detailed for Saxony (Franke et al, 2004)
Climate impacts on water balance components of the two subcatchments examined differed on a spatial scale but were rather equal on a temporal scale
For scenario A slightly increasing precipitation compensated the effects of increasing actual evapotranspiration due to temperature increase for the whole year compared to the reference period
Summary
During the past decades a decrease in summer rainfall, an increase in winter precipitation and an increase in temperature in all seasons, especially in winter, has been observed for Germany (Schonwiese et al, 2006) and more detailed for Saxony (Franke et al, 2004). Higher potential evapotranspiration can be expected, e.g. caused by a longer vegetation period. Likewise, this results in higher actual evapotranspiration unless limited by water yield. In this study the semi-distributed process-based ecohydrological model SWIM (Krysanova et al, 1998) was calibrated and validated for two subcatchments of the River Spree. These models were used to simulate the reference period 1961–1990 and two climate scenarios assuming a further temperature increase of 0 K (scenario A) and 2 K (scenario B) until 2055 in the study region.
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