Potential Climate Change Impacts On Imen Barley BYDV Resistant Variety Yields In Tunisia

Abstract

Generally, Barley yields vary less under changing weather conditions than those of wheat and most other small grains. A field trials in National Institute of Agricultural Research of Tunisia (INRAT) experimental station in Kef region (Tunisia) during twelve cropping seasons (2008-2019) was conducted to study the relationships between agroclimatic indices and average yields of Imen barley BYDV resistant variety compared to the most important spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) varieties (Manel and Rihane). In this paper, results are used as a control to estimate potential impacts of climate change scenarios and pedological conditions on anticipated average yields and total production of these commodities in Kef region by the 2058 period. The agronomic crop model Cropsyst was used to assess the impacts of increased temperature on growth and development varieties shown below in Tunisia, and to examine possible adaptation strategies. The analysis was based on multi-year crop model simulations run with daily weather series 2020-2058 that allowed two average yield levels: grain and biomass. The impacts of 0.2 °C temperature rise obtained by weather generator ClimGen included in Cropsyst on potential yields are positive and induced an increase of 14.4 %/ha for Imen in comparison with Manel 13.7 % and Rihane 10.1 %. Based on a range of available heat units projected by multiple General Circulation Model experiments, a climate change scenario representing +1 °C temperature rise was also applied for the same period and using the same generator. With 1°C temperature rise, average yieldsachievable in field trials could decrease in long term by about 0,16 q/ha (Rihane) and 0.46 t/ha (Manel) (4.7 % and 14 %). Cropsyst yield data, however, indicate an increase of 0.5 % with +1°C temperature rise suggesting the resilience of Imen barley grain production, compared to the two varieties Manel and Rihane.