Post-war Single-Family Houses in Europe under Pressure? A Demographic and Economic Framework for the Future Market of Elder Single-Family Housing Neighbourhoods

Abstract

Recent research suggests that in some West German regions, single-family housing (SFH) neighbourhoods are prone to decay due to changed socio-economic and demographic trends. The question of whether similar demographic trends and implications for the SFH stock can be described for other West European countries such as Belgium, France, Netherlands and United Kingdom is the focus of the study. To explore that question, the research team compared figures (mainly Eurostat data) from these EU countries to data from Germany to highlight commonalities and country-specific differences. As the data analyses point out, except for Germany, the population in the four studied countries is growing slightly, but economic conditions are declining. A closer look at country-specific housing preferences shows very different percentages of detached and semi-detached houses in the entire housing stock as well as very different percentages of home ownership. In the studied countries, an emerging mismatch between supply and demand in older single-family housing estates is not currently observable, but demographic and economic factors foretell a growing mismatch, especially for the next decades. Municipalities should observe the future development of older single-family housing neighbourhoods and consider preventive measures at an early stage to avoid undesirable developments.