Abstract
The chances of college entry declined among Black Americans from 1977 through the mid-1980s, absolutely and relative to those of Whites. During the decline, the post-high school plans of Black and White seniors followed similar trends. Annual measurements from the Monitoring the Future surveys show no trends among Blacks' or Whites' plans to attend technical or vocational school or plans or aspirations to complete a two-year college program. Plans and aspirations to enter the armed forces increased among Blacks and Whites, and the increase in plans was larger among Blacks than among Whites. Plans and aspirations to complete a four-year college program grew among Blacks and Whites, and the increase in plans was smaller among Blacks than among Whites. The upward trends among Blacks, but not among Whites, were driven by favorable changes in social background. Changes in aspirations among Black high school seniors cannot account for the decline in their chances of entering college.
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