Post hoc, ergo propter hoc? Path dependency and punctuated equilibria in European aviation safety regulation

Abstract

Current models of path dependency provide an incomplete and static account of political stability. In particular, institutional theories do not distinguish between different types of path dependency, nor do they provide a framework for an understanding of the reproduction of path dependency. This paper seeks to elaborate and sharpen the analysis of path dependency in institutional analysis by outlining a typology of institutional, structural, and ideational path dependency. Furthermore, the paper analyses two different types of processes through which path dependency is reproduced; deliberation and institutional isomorphism. Based on these two taxonomies, the paper provides a dynamic account of path dependency where structures, values, and practices sustaining path dependency are reproduced. By understanding these processes, we also better understand why path dependency breaks up into ‘critical junctures’ or ‘formative moments’. Empirically, the paper draws on recent research on the transition of regulation from the Joint Aviation Authority (JAA), an informal international network of senior national bureaucrats, to the EU's European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA).