Possible Scenarios for the Development of the Activities of the Irkutsk Region Timber Industry Complex

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to compile a medium-term forecast of the performance indicators of the Irkutsk region timber industry complex, taking into account the proposed recommendations for improving the management mechanism of the timber industry complex of Eastern Siberia. The main objectives of the study are: to check whether there is a relationship between two economic indicators: the volume of goods shipped and investments in the fixed capital of the enterprises of the Irkutsk region timber industry complex. The research method is econometric methods: correlation and regression analysis. According to the results of the correlation analysis, a strong relationship was established between two indicators: the volume of goods shipped and investments in fixed assets. The author has compiled a medium-term forecast of these indicators, according to it, under a negative scenario, the volume of shipped goods of woodworking and logging enterprises will increase to 251,9 billion rubles, inertial — to 269,91 billion rubles, target — 286,99 billion rubles. Thus, the construction of a linear regression model made it possible to calculate the effectiveness of the introduction of industrial symbiosis within the industry, which ultimately will allow it to switch to a new technological structure in the shortest possible time.