Оцінка економічного потенціалу зміни чисельності населення сучасної України

Abstract

The influence of the macroeconomic factor on the long-term trends of reproduction the population of Ukraine since independence is considered. Based on the author’s concept of “demoeconomic niche” the results of calculation of two options for estimating the “current” (per year) economic potential of population changes in Ukraine on the criteria of conditionally autonomous consumption of population and the actual subsistence level (including necessary payments) were analyzed. The potential for population decline according to the first criterion is considered as a pessimistic (maximum) estimate (–30 million in 2019), according to the second - as an optimistic estimate (–2 million in 2019). The aim of the study was to perform a statistical analysis of the relationship between demographic and economic indicators of population reproduction in Ukraine and their relationship with certain options for assessing the economic potential of population change to determine their greater or lesser relevance to demographic and economic realities. Novelty: the assessment of the economic potential of population change is performed within the economic and demographic methodology developed and maintained by the author (based on the macroeconomic concept of “demoeconomic niche”). Research methods: to study the statistical relationship between indicators used methods of correlation and regression analysis (linear models), as well as a comparative analysis of the results of calculations with the actual dynamics of demographic and economic indicators. Calculations were made by means of PPP STATISTICA 8.0. A statistical analysis of the relationship between demographic and economic indicators and their relationship with the studied options for assessing the economic potential of Ukraine population change was performed to determine compliance with demographic and economic realities. All-time series of indicators (30 and 22 years) subjected to statistical analysis are translated into a single form of annual increments to ensure comparability, as a percentage of the value of the initial year of analysis. The direct linear relationship of GDP changes with the dynamics of the total fertility rate and average life expectancy at birth was recorded, and close feedback - with the dynamics of the migration balance. It is noticed that changes in GDP and the total fertility rate for the whole and rural population have cophase quasi cyclic fluctuations with a 3-4 year lag of reaction delay. It is shown that the assessment of the economic potential of population change by the criterion of conditionally autonomous consumption of population is closely statistically dependent on macroeconomic indicators and economic dynamics. The assessment based on the criterion of the actual subsistence level (including necessary payments) depends more closely on the indicators that directly reflect the well-being of households. It turned out that the adequacy of the assessment based on the criterion of conditionally autonomous consumption of population gradually decreases over time due to the peculiarities of the calculation algorithm, growing inaccuracy can only be neglected at intervals of +/-5 years from the base year. The adequacy of the assessment according to the criterion of the actual subsistence level (including necessary payments) depends on the correspondence to the real cost of life values for each year of the observation period, these values need to be clarified.