The impact of changes in the demographic structure of the national labour market on macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine

Abstract

The full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops on 24 February 2022 led to significant changes in the Ukrainian labour market, which require a detailed analysis and understanding of their further dynamics. The purpose of this paper is to find out how the changes in the demographic structure of the national labour market have affected Ukraine’s macroeconomic indicators. Using such methods as statistical analysis, comparison, synthesis and forecasting, the study of current demographic and economic indicators was conducted. The study obtained and analysed statistics on the forced displacement of refugees both within Ukraine and abroad, taking into account age, gender, education and other demographic indicators – at least 12 million Ukrainian citizens were relocated, 75% of whom are able-bodied and more than half of whom have high professional qualifications. Separately, information on young people and students who continue or start studying abroad was studied and conclusions were drawn on their assimilation in the new society and the likelihood of their return to Ukraine. In the process of analysing the conditions for the growth of unemployment, the number of enterprises that ceased operations due to hostilities or temporary occupation was calculated – both geographically, by region, and by type of ownership. It turned out that in eastern Ukraine, the number of closed business entities reaches 80%, and almost a third of individual entrepreneurs have ceased their activities. The study also forecasts the conditions for post-war reconstruction of Ukraine, taking into account the fate of returning refugees and the country’s prospects for joining the European Union. The practical significance of this study is to assess the impact of changes in the structure of the labour market on the Ukrainian economy. The results may be useful for government agencies that are already formulating a strategy for Ukraine’s post-war recovery